Forex Analysis & Reviews: 31.10.2022 - Oil falls in price due to...

31.10.2022 11:39 PM

Oil falls in price due to bad news from China

Data on the economic situation in China reduces the appeal of oil, and the cost of raw materials falls on Monday.

December futures for Brent on London's ICE Futures exchange fell 1.16% to $92.69 per barrel.

Quotes of WTI futures for December in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 1.72% to $86.41 per barrel.

According to published statistics, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China's manufacturing industry in October fell to the lowest level since July - to 49.2 points (in September this figure was at the level of 50.1).

Experts on average expected a decline, but not as sharp. PMI services in China in October fell to 48.7 points, indicating a significant decline in activity in this sector.

Tight quarantine measures in China threaten the demand for fuel. And today it became known that from October 26 to October 30, quarantine was again introduced in the city of Wuhan. And all because of the fact that new cases of coronavirus infection were identified in the city.

As for the operating oil and gas drilling rigs in the USA, following the results of the last week (October 22-28), their number decreased by 3 units - up to 768 units.

But at the same time, in October their number increased for the first time since July. Drilling activity remained stable, although there were relatively high energy prices and a sharp decrease in profits. This was reported on Friday by the oilfield service company Baker Hughes.

Despite the decrease following the results of the reporting week, in general, in October the number of operating oil and gas drilling rigs turned out to be 224 units, or 41%, higher than last year.

And yet, the market ends the month up nearly 10%, largely thanks to OPEC+'s decision to cut production by 2 million bpd from November.

OPEC's annual World Oil Outlook (WOO) report says that oil will retain the largest share of the global energy mix until at least 2045. In other words, oil will remain the number one fuel in the world energy balance, the share will decrease from 31% to just under 29%. The total share of oil and gas is expected to remain above 50%.

At the same time, OPEC increased oil demand in its forecast by 1.6 million barrels per day. Demand is expected to increase to 109.8 million barrels per day in 2045. But the organization still expects oil demand to virtually stop growing after 2035.

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