empty
20.03.2025 12:43 AM
Euro Hits the Ceiling

Bets are now closed, ladies and gentlemen! Many have already played out. The EUR/USD's hesitation to rise following the Bundestag's approval of Friedrich Merz's fiscal stimulus package indicates that this factor is already reflected in the main currency pair. The drop below 1.09 is a result of selling the euro based on the facts, after initial buying on the rumors. The event is significant and comparable to the Marshall Plan for post-war Europe. But its effects will be felt later. For now, all eyes should be on the Federal Reserve.

According to Danske Bank, the potential for a EUR/USD rally from current levels is limited, as many bullish drivers have already been factored in. This includes the German fiscal deal, a ceasefire in Ukraine, and three anticipated rate cuts by the Fed in 2025. Germany operated under fiscal restraint for a long time, maintaining the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio among major Eurozone economies.

Debt-to-GDP Ratio Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

This frugality held back GDP growth. Moreover, the Ukraine conflict and the resulting energy crisis led to a contraction of the German economy in 2023–2024. Bloomberg estimates that fiscal stimulus could push growth to 2% by 2040.

However, this process will take time, meaning speculators may start unwinding long positions on EUR/USD after an extended rally especially since asset managers have pushed net long positions in the euro to a five-month high. In this environment, any event could trigger a sell-off.

EUR Positioning Among Asset Managers and Hedge Funds

This image is no longer relevant

Markets are overly optimistic about a swift end to the war in Eastern Europe, which would be excellent news for the Eurozone economy. However, Russia's refusal to agree to a 30-day truce suggests that the White House has plenty of work ahead. Peace is still far off, meaning EUR/USD valuations may have climbed too high.

The futures market currently prices in just under three rate cuts by the Fed in 2025. Even if the FOMC revises its projections from two cuts in December to three, this won't be enough to trigger mass buying of EUR/USD. However, if the Fed signals only two or fewer rate cuts this year, it could be a strong bearish signal for the currency pair.

This image is no longer relevant

Let's also not forget the looming trade war between the EU and the U.S., which supports Goldman Sachs' bearish stance on the euro. Despite this, the bank has raised its EUR/USD forecasts from $1.01 to $1.06 (6 months) and $0.99 to $1.02 (12 months).

From a technical perspective, the daily EUR/USD chart still risks triggering the Anti-Turtles reversal pattern. Therefore, a drop below 1.089 is a signal to sell. Buying should only be considered if this level holds after testing or if the pair rebounds to 1.093.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Donald Trump sows confusion again with tariff remarks

United States President Donald Trump once again stirred confusion on Tuesday by announcing plans to introduce a series of exemptions to his sweeping tariff proposal. The announcement served

Jakub Novak 11:36 2025-03-26 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to show a positive tone today, but conviction behind the upward movement remains weak. Market uncertainty, driven by the tariffs announced by Donald Trump—set to take effect

Irina Yanina 10:54 2025-03-26 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen remains under pressure today due to weak domestic economic data. In February, Japan's leading inflation indicator in the services sector rose by 3.0% year-over-year, slightly below

Irina Yanina 10:42 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Looks Like It's Time to Focus on the Euro and Yen (EUR/USD May Fall, USD/JPY May Rise)

Since mid-month, financial markets have been trying to recover while frantically analyzing all possible developments surrounding the trade war the U.S. launched against its largest trading partners. Investor sentiment continues

Pati Gani 08:52 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Markets Won't Rush Headfirst into the Fire

Donald Trump has dealt such a heavy blow to globalization that conditions and outlooks for the future have changed—now divided along territorial lines. While European banks believe the S&P 500's

Marek Petkovich 07:00 2025-03-26 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 26? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday, and only one important report is expected. The UK will release what may seem like a significant inflation report. Inflation remains

Paolo Greco 06:03 2025-03-26 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 26: The Pound Isn't Even Trying. Inertial Growth Continues

The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Tuesday. It did so on a day when there were no significant events in the UK, and the only noteworthy report

Paolo Greco 02:40 2025-03-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 26: No News, No Movement

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with low volatility on Tuesday. There have been times when the euro would crawl just 40 pips a day, and while current volatility isn't extremely

Paolo Greco 02:40 2025-03-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD: The Southward Trend Stalls, but Long Positions Remain Risky

A mixed situation has developed around the EUR/USD pair. On the one hand, the bearish sentiment prevails: last week, the price reached a 5-month high at 1.0955, while on Tuesday

Irina Manzenko 23:59 2025-03-25 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair is retreating from the psychological level of 151.00, reached earlier on Tuesday, though this pullback is not accompanied by significant selling pressure. The Japanese yen is attracting

Irina Yanina 18:09 2025-03-25 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.