empty
09.12.2021 11:35 AM
Markets are waiting for the US inflation data and the result of the Fed meeting

As hysteria continues in Europe regarding the COVID-19 "Omicron" strain, which is manifested in strict isolation measures in the UK, there is a pullback of concerns in the US in the wake of statements by epidemiologists that currently existing vaccines against this infection block viral infection.

These positive sentiments are manifested in a three-day growth in the stock market in America, which can fully develop into a longer Christmas rally. If the topic of the ill-fated "Omicron" has almost disappeared from the headlines of the business media, then discussions of the Fed's upcoming monetary policy measures are increasingly beginning to appear following the results of the meeting, which will begin on December 14 and end on December 15.

There is a concern in the market about what the American regulator will do with the course of monetary policy. If earlier the consensus forecast was based on expectations of the start of the process of raising interest rates in the middle of next year, then the latest statements by J. Powell, the head of the Central Bank, told the banking committee in the Senate that the bank could accelerate the process of reducing asset repurchases by reducing volumes not by $ 15 billion, as stated, but by $ 30 billion, then this would only strengthen the sale of US Treasury government bonds, which would push the dollar exchange rate up. Investors are afraid of this, or rather, of the unknown.

In recent years, confidence in the Federal Reserve has been shaken in the markets. The regulator, represented by its leader, as well as the heads of the Federal Reserve banks, repeatedly made forecasts and made plans for the future development of the national economy and the course of monetary policy, which either were not justified or were not implemented, plunging markets into a state of uncertainty, and this led to an increase in volatility. And now investors expect clarity from the Central Bank following the results of the meeting in the timing and pace of the likely rate increase. And here an important role will be played by the publication tomorrow on Friday of November data on consumer inflation.

It should be reminded that both the general inflation and the base inflation are expected to grow in annual terms, but on the contrary, their monthly values should demonstrate some slowdown in growth.

Why is this data important for the Fed and, ultimately, for the market?

They will help the Central Bank to understand the dynamics of inflation and, perhaps, somehow imagine what needs to be done to curb it. But again, let's pay attention to the fact that these figures will not be enough to make a final decision. Earlier, we pointed out that in order to finally decide for himself when and at what rate to raise rates, he needs data for at least three months. That is why previous reviews mentioned the January meeting of the regulator, which will take into account the inflation values for the last two months of autumn and December. If indeed inflationary pressure begins to gradually fall, then in this case we should expect a later start of rate hikes next year, for example, in late summer or even in autumn. But if, after a likely pause in growth in November, it increases in December, then we expect that rates will still be raised in the first quarter of 2022.

For the market, the slowdown in inflation and the postponement of rate hikes in the timing will lead to a new wave of demand for risky assets and a weakening of the US dollar. At the same time, increased inflationary pressure will weigh down stock indexes and stimulate the appreciation of the dollar.

Forecast of the day:

WTI crude oil prices are trading below $ 73.00 per barrel. High demand for this product against the backdrop of winter and the expectation that OPEC+ will not change their approach to politics in the future, will stimulate price increases. In this regard, an increase above the level of 73.00 will lead to a price growth to 76.00.

This image is no longer relevant

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

AUD/USD:分析與預測

AUD/USD匯率組合繼續在熟悉的區間內橫向整理,停留在一個接近0.6300的重要心理水平的範圍內。這一走勢主要受到多項影響全球市場情緒的因素驅動。

Irina Yanina 11:16 2025-03-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD。分析與預測

今天,歐元/美元對正在主要心理關口1.0800附近盤整,沒有表現出跌破1.0780的意圖,投資者和交易商正在等待美國個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數的發布。 該數據將受到密切關注,以尋找美聯儲下一步行動的線索,預計這將顯著影響美元的短期動態,並可能為歐元/美元對帶來新的動力。

Irina Yanina 10:45 2025-03-28 UTC+2

市場在關稅公告前處於十字路口——特朗普即將宣布(#SPX 和 #NDX 期貨的差價合約可能下跌)

市場現在完全相信,美國總統將落實其計劃,實施嚴厲的關稅,以封閉國內市場,藉此刺激國內製造商。 瞭解這一點,投資者基本上暫停了交易,等待4月2日會發生什麼。

Pati Gani 10:39 2025-03-28 UTC+2

市場找到了罪魁禍首

第一次並不如願,不代表第二次不成功。在美國及國外汽車製造商股票的領跌下,隨著25%關稅的實施,標普500指數的拋售浪潮連續第二天持續。

Marek Petkovich 08:19 2025-03-28 UTC+2

3月28日需要注意什麼?新手的基礎事件解析

週五將有相當多的宏觀經濟事件預定發生,但我們認為這些事件可能只會引發當地市場的反應。英國將公佈第四季度國內生產總值(GDP)第三次估計值以及零售銷售數據。

Paolo Greco 06:26 2025-03-28 UTC+2

GBP/USD對概覽——3月28日:英鎊略微下跌後再次上升

英鎊/美元貨幣對在週四再次上漲,即使之前幾天才剛剛出現下行調整的跡象。市場已經消化了英國疲弱的通脹報告和美國強勁的耐用品數據。

Paolo Greco 03:00 2025-03-28 UTC+2

歐元/美元對概覽——3月28日:唐納·川普喜愛驚喜

週四,歐元/美元貨幣對保持著下行偏見,儘管整天交易走高。波動性再次保持低位,表明市場活動疲弱。

Paolo Greco 03:00 2025-03-28 UTC+2

歐元/美元。特朗普再度將美元打入谷底

在唐納德·特朗普最新言論影響下,歐元/美元對正經歷修正,因為他再次重新點燃了關稅戰。有趣的是,美元在總統的言論中最初反應積極——美元指數回到了104.00區域,達到了三週高點。

Irina Manzenko 23:44 2025-03-27 UTC+2

黃金知曉勝利之道

黃金並不是在唐納德·特朗普於11月大選勝出後的市場寵兒。事實上,當紅色浪潮明顯且共和黨重返白宮似乎迫在眉睫時,黃金價格有所回落。

Marek Petkovich 10:55 2025-03-27 UTC+2

XAU/USD – 分析與預測

黃金繼續保持其日內漲幅,交易價格接近每週高位約 $3036。這是由於多個因素,包括美國貿易政策的不確定性及其對全球經濟的影響,以及市場對美聯儲降息的預期。

Irina Yanina 10:44 2025-03-27 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.