Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.81 price level during the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying the dollar.

Today's U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data will play an important role, but if the figures align with economists' forecasts, traders are likely to shift their attention to speeches by U.S. policymakers. Federal Reserve representatives, such as John Williams and Jeffrey Schmid, will likely emphasize the need for a cautious approach to further rate cuts. Williams may highlight that reducing inflation takes time, suggesting the Fed will not rush to ease monetary policy. This statement could boost confidence among dollar buyers. Additionally, traders will be watching for comments on yesterday's rumors regarding U.S. trade tariffs and their potential implementation schedule.

For intraday strategy, I will focus on the execution of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 158.10 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 158.82 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.82, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, anticipating a 30-35 point pullback. The pair's growth is only expected within a broad sideways channel.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.60 level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Expect growth toward the opposite levels of 158.10 and 158.82.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Plan to sell USD/JPY after the 157.60 level (red line on the chart) is broken, leading to a rapid decline. Sellers' main target will be the 156.87 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in anticipation of a 20-25 point upward movement. Pressure on the pair may build near the upper boundary of the sideways channel.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: Plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.10 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 157.60 and 156.87.

Chart Guide

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Key for determining entry points, focusing on overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

• Exercise caution when making market entry decisions.
• Avoid trading during the release of key economic reports to mitigate the risk of sharp price swings.
• Always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
• Successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one presented above. Impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently losing strategies for intraday traders.