Early in the American session, the euro is trading around 1.0496, below 2/8 Murray, below 21 SMA, and within a downtrend channel forming since November 26th. The euro is under selling pressure. Therefore, EUR/USD is likely to continue its fall in the next few hours.

The euro has been consolidating since the beginning of November above the psychological level and below 1.0620. This consolidation will continue in the next few days and we could look for opportunities to buy above 1.0526 (21 SMA) and sell below 1.0620 (3/8 Murray).

In case the euro consolidates below 1.0496, the outlook could be negative and we expect EUR/USD to reach the 1/8 Murray located at 1.0376. This could be a key point and we could expect a technical bounce to occur around this area.

Since November 17, the Eagle indicator has been giving a positive signal. So, we believe that above the psychological level of 1.0500, the outlook could be positive for the euro. Hence, we expect EUR/USD to reach the 200 EMA around 1.0805.