The Australian dollar has nearly reached the target support level of 0.6640, although there are also levels at 0.6643 in recent history, such as the low of January 5. The price consolidated below the MACD line, but to firmly establish the trend as a medium-term downward one, it needs to move below the balance line (red moving average), which would require a sharp downward breakout to prevent the line from adapting to the price movement.

The Marlin oscillator has anchored itself in the downtrend territory, providing the opportunity for such a breakout. If the price returns above the 0.6691 level and simultaneously rises above the MACD line, growth toward 0.6801 could follow. This is the alternative scenario. According to the main scenario, we expect a breakout below 0.6640 and a decline toward 0.6570.

In the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating above the 0.6640 level. A consolidation below this level increases the likelihood of downward movement. The Marlin oscillator may reverse from the zero line.