Analisis Forex & Kajian: 16.08.2022 - Gas in Europe for $2500. Who...

16.08.2022 04:36 PM

Gas in Europe for $2500. Who is to blame and what will happen next?

The cost of gas on spot exchanges in Europe has broken the mark of $ 2,500 per 1,000 cubic meters. According to conservative estimates, with a similar trend in the coming winter, the price of gas risks rising even above $ 4,000.

The main driver of the increase in gas prices in Europe is the problems with the restoration of the full-fledged operation of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. It significantly limited the volumes of Russian energy supplies to the European market. The statement of the Russian energy giant Gazprom that sanctions against Russia prevent Siemens engines from being obtained, which are so necessary for the operation of the gas pipeline, led to a rise in gas exchange prices at the beginning of last week. Namely, to $2,100 per 1,000 cubic meters. Further, the price rose smoothly and confidently during the week, passing the recent critical levels.

And the current week is marked by even more accelerated growth. For example, on Monday, the price of futures contracts for the supply of gas in September (according to the TTF index) exceeded $2,400 per 1,000 cubic meters, which happened for the first time since the beginning of March. At Tuesday's trading opening, the blue fuel price crossed the $2,450 mark.

Nord Stream carries out the main gas supplies from Russia to Europe, but since mid-June, they have been limited, and since the end of July, only 20% of the almost 170 million cubic meters of capacity per day has been supplied. To date, the highway operation is provided by only one turbine.

Last Thursday, the Russian embassy in Berlin reported that the supply of a turbine for the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Canada to Germany did not meet the terms of the contract. Russia demands confirmation that this and other turbines, which may require maintenance, will not fall under the sanctions of the EU, Canada, and the UK.In addition to restrictions on the supply of natural gas from Russia, the shutdown of the capacities of the Norwegian Troll field and Kollsnes gas treatment plants will also contribute to the increase in gas prices due to the annual preventive maintenance. It will take place from August 13 until the end of the month. As a result, production capacity will be reduced by 20 million cubic meters of gas during this period.

In addition, the atypically high temperature level in Europe raises the demand for electricity needed for air conditioning and reduces the generation of hydroelectric power plants.It is noteworthy that, according to the WindEurope Association, wind generation in EU countries remains below normal. In summer, it is usually 11-20%, but on August 15, the WPP generation share was at 9.5% of the total volume. It may not be the most significant factor, but it increases the demand for gas. Consequently, the price of it increases.

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Andreeva Natalya,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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