Analisis Forex & Kajian: 19.05.2023 - All eyes on Fed members and...

19.05.2023 11:29 AM

All eyes on Fed members and Jerome Powell's speech. EUR/USD and EUR/JPY set to rise

By the end of the week, the sentiment on global markets has noticeably improved. News about active negotiations between Joe Biden and Republican and Democrat leaders in Congress regarding the increase of the national debt ceiling infused some optimism into the market, leading to a notable rise in stock indices. Interestingly, this did affect the US currency.

Why is the US dollar staying afloat even amid increasing demand for risk assets?

Indeed, there was previously a certain correlation when the US dollar came under pressure on Forex. Usually, this happens amid high demand for corporate stocks and other assets like commodities. However, in the current situation, the dollar is receiving support as markets fear that the US Federal Reserve might increase the key interest rate at the meeting on June 14 instead of the expected pause. Here, statements from some Federal Reserve members play a significant role.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President J. Bullard told the Financial Times that he supported a rate hike as "insurance" against inflation. He added that inflation was declining more slowly than he had anticipated, meaning there is a risk of losing control over it. He expressed fears that, as was the case in the 1970s, it could start to turn upwards again. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan agreed with her colleague, suggesting that a pause is currently inappropriate and much will depend on the incoming economic statistics data.

This is exactly the kind of sentiment among some Federal Reserve members that is supporting the dollar's rate due to the high probability of a rate hike at the June meeting.

In this regard, markets will especially wait for comments from other US regulator representatives: John C. Williams, Michelle W. Bowman, and, of course, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Investors will be looking for clues about a potential interest rate increase next month.

Should we expect any signals from them?

The Fed representatives might give some comments, but Powell is likely to refrain from any statements as there is almost a month ahead of the Fed's meeting. Moreover, some important economic data, such as the unemployment rate, is still to be published. However, the market may react positively to the absence of negative signals today, remaining under the influence of the debt limit negotiations theme, and continuing the local rally on the stock markets. It is quite possible that USD can decline against the basket of major currencies to the level of 102.50.

EUR/USD

The pair is currently oversold. If ECB President Christine Lagarde confirms today that the regulator will continue to raise the rate, the pair may pass the level of 1.0800 and head for the upper target at 1.0900 amid an overall optimistic sentiment in the market.

EUR/JPY

The pair may also gain support amid Lagarde's speech regarding further rate hikes. If so, the price may break above the 149.35 level, aiming at the next target at 151.30.

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