Analisis Forex & Kajian: 19.06.2024 - Three reasons to buy the...

19.06.2024 05:07 PM

Three reasons to buy the Australian Dollar

Disappointing statistics on retail sales in the United States and the Reserve Bank's statement on a possible increase in the cash rate allowed AUD/USD to go on a decisive offensive. The Australian dollar, supported by divergence in monetary policy, strong global risk appetite and the recovery of the Chinese economy, can work wonders. However, first, it needs to be released from the consolidation cage.

At its June meeting, the RBA left the key rate at 4.35% but noted that it was necessary to remain vigilant about inflation. Michelle Bullock said that the central bank discussed the possibility of resuming the cycle of tightening monetary policy, which allowed the futures market to increase the chances of such an outcome in August from zero to 20%. Australian bond yields and AUD/USD have risen.

While inflation is slowing in the United States and other developed countries, it is much slower in Australia. This leaves the issue of raising the cash rate open. The Fed, against the background of slowing retail sales, inflation and the economy as a whole, is likely to ease monetary policy in September. Divergence is the guiding star of AUD/USD.

Dynamics of retail sales in the USA

The ongoing rally of the S&P 500 and the recovery of the Chinese economy adds fuel to the fire of the potential exit of AUD/USD from consolidation in the range of 0.658-0.67 with a further continuation of the northern campaign. So, in May, retail sales in China increased by 3.7%, and exports jumped by 7.6%. Nevertheless, the improvement in the state of China's foreign trade is a double–edged sword. The EU has already imposed duties on imports of electric vehicles, and the US has recently increased them. If Donald Trump comes to power, the situation risks worsening significantly, putting pressure on the yuan and the Australian dollar.

Despite a 3.6% increase in Chinese exports to the US in May, contrary to past trends, exports to Asian and Latin American countries are accelerating. Conversely, exports to the EU and the US have slowed due to the creation of intermediate links. The most popular destinations are Mexico and Vietnam. Therefore, if Washington wants to stifle China, it should impose tariffs on imports for intermediaries.

Dynamics and Structure of Chinese Exports

Thus, the divergence in the monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Fed, high global risk appetite as evidenced by the S&P 500 rally, and the recovering Chinese economy create a tailwind for AUD/USD. However, the US presidential elections and the risk of Donald Trump coming to power with his protectionist policies are major restraining factors for the pair.

Technically, on the daily chart, AUD/USD shows an attempt by the bulls to break through the upper boundary of the consolidation range of 0.659-0.67. Securing quotes above the moving averages and fair value suggests that they might succeed. It makes sense to buy as long as the pair trades above 0.6645.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Marek Petkovich,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

XAU/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pasaran Tiada Lagi Tempat untuk Dijalankan

Nilai Dolar AS Meningkat — Inilah Sebabnya

Mengapa Harga Emas Boleh Menurun Secara Signifikan? (Terdapat kemungkinan emas akan terus merosot manakala CFD pada kontrak niaga hadapan NASDAQ 100 mungkin meningkat)

Gambaran GBP/USD – 25 April: Fed Mula Bimbang Dengan Serius

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 25 April: Amerika Syarikat Memfailkan Saman Terhadap Trump

Apakah yang Perlu Diberi Perhatian pada 25 April? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Yen Kelihatan Semakin Kuat

Kanada Menunggu Keputusan Pilihan Raya. Tinjauan USD/CAD

Dolar Australia Mungkin Terjejas Jika Perang Perdagangan AS-China Semakin Memuncak

Analisis terbaik