empty
21.12.2023 01:12 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on December 21, 2021

The EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, consolidating below the corrective level of 61.8% (1.0960). Thus, the downward process may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.0862). I support the scenario of further decline in the pair, as, judging by the waves, the trend seems to be shifting towards the "bearish" side. However, a firm hold above the level of 1.0960 will indicate that bulls are not ready to retreat fully and may attempt to resume growth towards the level of 1.1035.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation is becoming clearer and more favorable. The last downward wave turned out to be relatively weak (compared to the previous upward wave), and the current upward wave has every chance of not surpassing the peak of the previous wave (from December 14). If this scenario unfolds, we will have the first sign of completing the "bullish" trend. In this case, a decline towards the level of 1.0862 should begin, which may only be the start of a prolonged "bearish" trend. This is the scenario I am currently counting on.

On Wednesday, there were a few interesting events in the European Union and the United States. The only U.S. report on the number of new home sales showed a value slightly higher than traders expected for November. However, this report is unimportant, and traders' reactions were practically nonexistent. Thus, this week, I can highlight only two events. The first one is the inflation report in the European Union, which showed a final decrease in November to 2.4% y/y, and the U.S. GDP report for the third quarter, which will be released today in the second half of the day.

As with European inflation, the report on economic growth in the U.S. may not cause a strong reaction. This is not the first estimate of the indicator for the third quarter, and traders are prepared to see +5.2% q/q. If today's report shows a higher or lower value, then bulls or bears will receive minor support. But overall, this week's information background is quite weak, with important reports coming only from the United Kingdom. By the end of the week, trader activity may be relatively low, but I still expect a decline in the pair toward the level of 1.0862. This target already looks quite attractive.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.0957). A firm consolidation of the pair's rate above this level allows counting on further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1032. Reconsolidation below 1.0957 will again favor the U.S. currency and a fall to the lower line of the ascending trend corridor, which still characterizes traders' sentiment as "bullish." I expect a significant decline in the euro only after consolidating below the ascending trend corridor. Still, even under the current circumstances, a decline towards the lower line of the corridor looks promising. There are no apparent divergences with any indicator today.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trader advice:

What advice can be given to traders today? The rise of the European currency is unlikely. The continuation of the "bullish" trend is also unlikely. The information background could be stronger; the economic events calendar for the EU and the U.S. is practically empty, and traders will find it difficult to find new reasons for buying. Thus, a resumption of the decline towards the level of 1.0862 is likely. A consolidation below the level of 1.0960 can be considered for selling the pair. I consider purchases today impractical and too risky."

Samir Klishi,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Sinais de negociação para o EUR/USD para 24-26 de abril de 2025: venda abaixo de 1,1435 (SMA 214 - 7/8 de Murray)

Nosso plano de negociação para as próximas horas é aguardar que o euro se recupere até os níveis de resistência próximos de 1,1429 ou 1,1435 para vender, com alvos

Dimitrios Zappas 21:44 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Análise técnica do movimento de preço da prata, quinta-feira, 24 de abril de 2025

No gráfico de 4 horas, o instrumento da commodity prata apresenta sinais de fortalecimento. Esse cenário é confirmado pelo movimento do preço, que está acima da WMA (30, deslocamento 2)

Arief Makmur 17:28 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Análise técnica do movimento de preços do índice Nasdaq 100, quinta-feira, 24 de abril de 2025.

Embora o índice Nasdaq 100 esteja se movimentando lateralmente no gráfico de 4 horas, a faixa de oscilação é relativamente ampla, o que ainda representa uma oportunidade promissora. Atualmente

Arief Makmur 17:25 2025-04-24 UTC+2

OURO: Os preços do ouro podem cair significativamente em um futuro próximo

Os preços do ouro passaram recentemente por uma correção significativa, refletindo as expectativas de que Estados Unidos e China iniciem negociações concretas sobre tarifas e comércio em geral. A declaração

Pati Gani 17:16 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Análise técnica do movimento intradiário de preços do AUD/JPY, quarta-feira, 23 de abril de 2025

Com a presença de uma divergência entre o movimento de preços do par AUD/JPY e o indicador Stochastic Oscillator, além do preço estar acima da média móvel ponderada (WMA)

Arief Makmur 16:00 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Análise técnica do movimento intradiário do preço do ouro, quarta-feira, 23 de abril de 2025

Ao observar o gráfico de 4 horas, o ouro ainda apresenta viés de alta. No entanto, a divergência entre o movimento de preços do ouro e o indicador Stochastic Oscillator

Arief Makmur 15:51 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Análise técnica do movimento intradiário de preços do GBP/CHF, terça-feira, 22 de abril de 2025

Ao analisarmos o gráfico de 4 horas do par cruzado GBP/CHF, observamos diversos elementos interessantes. Primeiramente, o surgimento de um padrão de triângulo, aliado ao movimento

Arief Makmur 15:50 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Análise técnica do movimento intradiário de preços do AUD/CAD, terça-feira, 22 de abril de 2025

Com o par AUD/CAD se movendo acima da média móvel ponderada de 21 períodos (WMA 21), que apresenta inclinação positiva, e com a ocorrência de convergência entre o movimento

Arief Makmur 15:47 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Análise técnica do movimento intradiário de preços do EUR/GBP, segunda-feira, 21 de abril de 2025

Com base no gráfico de 4 horas, o par EUR/GBP parece estar se movendo acima da EMA (100), o que indica que os compradores dominam o par. Assim, no futuro

Arief Makmur 15:36 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Análise técnica do movimento intradiário do USD/JPY, segunda-feira, 21 de abril de 2025.

Com o surgimento da convergência entre o movimento de preço do principal par de moedas USD/JPY, o indicador Oscilador Estocástico e a posição da EMA (100), que está acima

Arief Makmur 15:31 2025-04-21 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.